Might New Hampshire Not Be First?
For time immemorial, the overwhelmingly white primary electorates in New Hampshire and Iowa have had a disproportionately large say in who would be the Democratic nominee for president. I have to admit, when I testified in July that a state like Arizona should be moved up in the presidential primary calendar so that a more diverse electorate could have a say, I never expected to see a change take effect by 2008.
Earlier tonight, however, AP reported:
Democrats trying to change their presidential primaries for 2008 agreed Saturday to recommend that at least two other states join Iowa and New Hampshire in voting during the opening days of the nominating campaign…The additional states, expected to be named later, were likely to include a smaller state from the South and a smaller state from the Southwest or West.
One of the points that I made in my testimony was that Latino politicians can count votes as well as anybody, so making a state like with a large Latino electorate first in the nation would increase the number of Latinos running for president. If Arizona was first, would Mayor Villaraigosa jump in?
Another point that I made in DC was that it’s one thing to be an early primary and another thing entirely to be first. The AP story makes it clear that it’s far from sure that New Hampshire and Iowa will lose or even split their hallowed place in the primary calendar. Goodness knows they won’t go down without a fight.
