Arizona Journal: Another Janet Challenger Bites the Dust
I ran the Get Out the Vote (GOTV) effort for now-Governor (then-AG) Janet Napolitano of Arizona in 2002. It’s a Republican state, but thanks to the 24/7 grassroots efforts of talented young organizers like Summer Oesch, Kris Garcia, Kelly Ward and John Hartsell, we were able to deliver an 11,819 vote margin out of 1,255,615 ballots cast (0.9 percent).
Of course, GOTV can’t close the deal if the candidate and the strategic team haven’t opened the door. Napolitano was a fantastic candidate - smart and hard-working - while the consultants, folks like Celinda Lake, Saul Shorr and Chris Cooper, resisted the temptation to get drawn into the national debates that doomed other Democrats around the country. Napolitano ran a very Arizona-centered campaign. Not only did it serve her well, but it should also serve as a lesson to others running in 2006. Democratic candidates for statewide office shouldn’t look at President Bush’s low approval numbers and start hoping for a groundswell of voter support for Democrats that will sweep them into office. After all, a recent Gallup poll showed that even though voters are feeling worse about Republicans than they have in years, they are also feeling worse about Democrats. We don’t have a national message yet, despite the best efforts of my old boss, Stan Greenberg. Statewide candidates need to keep it local.
In today’s Arizona Republic, Chip Scutari reports that yet another high-profile Republican has passed on the chance to take on Governor Napolitano in 2006.
Napolitano is riding shotgun over a growing economy, a $350 million budget surplus and a 70 percent approval rating. She’s a popular, pragmatic Democrat who has cut business taxes. In the era of publicly funded elections, Napolitano will have the same amount of campaign cash as her much-lesser-known rivals. Even the election map favors Napolitano. Early voting starts about one month after the September 2006 primary, giving the GOP challenger barely any time to capture the great mass of Arizona’s independent voters.
Meanwhile, many Republicans are hoping that former state Department of Transportation Director Mary Peters gets in:
Peters, 56, who recently resigned from her post as federal highway administrator, has generated enthusiasm among party leaders in recent weeks, partly because of the belief she could keep Republican women in the fold against Napolitano. Bert Coleman, a Republican strategist, said Peters has the intangibles to be a “formidable candidate.”
The other big race in Arizona is the U.S. Senate, where developer and former state party chair Jim Pederson is taking on Republican incumbent John Kyl. Without Pederson’s leadership and money, I do not believe Napolitano - wonderful as she is - would have won in 2002. It will be interesting to watch how she returns the favor.
October 16th, 2005 at 12:35 pm
Look for very popular Congressman J.D. Hayworth to enter the on the Republican side; this would be a very serious challenge to the Governor.
October 16th, 2005 at 10:48 pm
Is he rethinking his decision to stay out? The polls seem to suggest staying out is the smart thing to do. As do Hayworth’s ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff:
Hayworth has a long relationship with Team Abramoff. He used sports skyboxes that Abramoff charged to clients from 1999 to 2001 but failed to report the use to the Federal Election Commission until late last year, after publicity about the federal investigation of Abramoff. Hayworth’s amended reports show his campaign fund reimbursed two Abramoff clients — the Choctaw and Chitimacha — $12,880 for using the sports suites five times.
According to records obtained by The Post, Ring last month coordinated with Hayworth’s office on a letter to members of Congress from Choctaw Chief Phillip Martin seeking support for the tribal labor amendment.
October 18th, 2005 at 9:28 pm
JD is out, Janet is going to win in a walk. What everyone should be paying attention to is the fact that Democrat Robert Cannell has announce he may not run for Senate, Cheryl Chase switched parties and will be a real threat to Rebecca Rios and Harry Mitchell’s rule over the highly competative LD 17 is over. Can you say “veto-proof”?
October 24th, 2005 at 7:17 am
Hmmm. I wonder who did the polling for that GOTV effort?
October 24th, 2005 at 8:25 am
Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce you to the one and only Christy Quirk! Was it enough for her to do the polling for the GOTV effort that won in Arizona?
No.
Was it enough to win just about every race she did while polling from Portland, Oregon?
No.
So now she is an International Woman of Mystery, saving democracy everywhere she goes. Her current project is in Azerbaijan, where saving democracy is no easy task. She is also hands-down the funniest person I know. For a wry look at her adventures in Central Asia, check out the Carpet Blog…
January 22nd, 2006 at 1:04 am
[…] As for the general election survey, my best guess is that Weiss wanted to test the waters before jumping in. Instead of doing a full-on primary election baseline poll which would cost her well over $20,000 - a tidy sum when you’re not sure you’re going to run - I think she decided to ask her pollster whether she could do something a little more economical. Maybe piggybacking onto a survey that the pollster was already doing in Arizona. Given that the pollster also works for Governor Napolitano and the Napolitano had the State of the State coming up, the pollster said sure, I’ve got something you can tag on to. Problem is, Celinda said, Janet doesn’t have a primary election coming up, so we’re only going to be testing general election voters. Still, Celinda continued, we could do an oversample in the congressional district, and see how you match up against the potential Republicans relative to the other Democrats in the race. And while we won’t be talking to enough Democratic primary voters to analyze the subgroups you need to create a campaign strategy, we will be talking to enough to assess the horserace between you and Giffords. And it will cost you a lot less than $20,000. A lot less than $10,000, even! And if it comes back positive, we could write a memo that will really help you with your fundraising. […]