The South Texas $64,000 Question
Question: How much money does it take to make the runoff in a Texas congressional primary when you are a state rep with name recognition below 50 percent running against a popular current congressman from your hometown and a beloved former congressman from a town where nobody knows who you are?
The above graph shows how State Representative Richard Raymond is faring against Congressman Henry Cuellar and former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez in the Texas CD-28 race. In the South Counties, which include Laredo, the hometown of both Raymond and Cuellar, Raymond is 44 points down. In Bexar, which includes San Antonio, the hometown of Rodriguez, Raymond is down 52 points.
Answer: More money than Raymond is ever going to be able to raise. Or, once contributors realize how poorly he’s running in his own hometown, more money than he will be able to loan to himself.
Corollary Question: How will Rodriguez raise the money to protect his base and expand in to Cuellar territory once Raymond starts attacking the incumbent in Laredo for his unpopular pro-Bush votes?
Answer: When you start with the fact that many of the Democratic Hispanic congressional delegation either has done (since the last report) or will do events for Ciro, this won’t be a problem…
