Adam Nagourney of the New York Times gives some credence to “Democratic ambitions for capturing Congress” by sharing some numbers from my old boss:

Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster who worked for President Bill Clinton in the 1994 elections, said polls he conducted in three districts where Democrats were thought to have modest hopes of winning found incumbents struggling with just 50 percent of the vote against unknown challengers. In a typical year, an incumbent at this point should have an overwhelming lead.

The members in question were Mr. Chabot in Ohio, Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania and Mike Ferguson in New Jersey. “These races are competitive five or six months before the election,” Mr. Greenberg said. Republican officials said they were confident of holding on to all three seats.

Just to put this in context, Stan is saying that these backbenchers are barely breaking 50 percent. He’s not saying they’re losing. Apparently, as it stands right now, even if every single undecided voter in their districts went for the Democratic challenger, all three Republicans would still win. Meanwhile, back in the summer of 1994, Jim Sasser of Tennessee, who was widely expected to be the next Senate Majority Leader, was already down double-digits to his then no-name challenger, Dr. Bill Frist.

Taking back the Congress will require stunning upsets. John Cranley over Steve Chabot isn’t bad, but it’s nothing compared to one of the highlights of the Republican takeover in 1994, George Nethercutt over Tom Foley. Tom Foley was Speaker of the House. It was the first time a sitting Speaker had been unseated since 1860. That, to me, is what an electoral tidal wave looks like. Beating incumbents is no mean feat and I’m confident we will do some of that this year - given the president’s poll numbers, we damn well should. But until someone shows you some poll numbers showing a no-name Democrat beating a Republican who would ordinarily be invulnerable, you probably shouldn’t get your hopes up about the Democrats taking back the Congress.

Steve Chabot, you’re no Tom Foley.

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