Moral of the Story: Take Name Recognition with a Grain of Salt
Back in January, I wrote about the release of a poll by an AZ-8 congressional candidate that purported to prove that Patty Weiss would be a better general election candidate that Gabrielle Giffords. I argued at the time - and later - that the Weiss was simply benefiting from name recognition earned as television newscaster. Giffords, I wrote, had high positives within her state senate district and the resources to introduce herself to the whole congressional district.
Blake Morlock and Kostas Kalaitzidis of the Tucson Citizen report on what happened in yesterday’s Democratic primary:
Giffords, a former state senator, beat a field of six Democrats with 54 percent of the vote. Her closest competitor was former newscaster Patty Weiss, who finished with 31 percent, with 95 percent of the precincts reporting.
Weiss, in a stunning display of party unity, delivered her concession speech at Giffords’ rally, standing beside her former opponent on stage and putting a Giffords for Congress button on her blazer.
First, I want to say congratulations to Senator Giffords. I am also exceedingly impressed by the display of class by Patty Weiss - lots of candidates should learn from her example. But lastly, I just want to remake the point that name recognition early on is a bad predictor of who will win an election. Always has been, yet still sophisticated observers get caught in the glare of trial heats 9 months out.
