Going Negative
Both the Los Angeles Times and the New York Times are bracing readers for the onslaught of negative ads:
While President Bush and national GOP leaders are attacking Democrats on such big issues as national security and America’s role in the world, individual Republicans are hitting their opponents hard — below the belt, some critics say — on personal and local issues.
Negative campaigning is hardly new, and Democrats are dishing dirt against Republicans too. But mudslinging is crucial to the Republican plan for this year’s midterm elections, because the party’s hold on power will probably hinge on shifting attention from the unpopular war in Iraq and other national issues that cut against them.
“When people are looking at national issues that are not breaking our way, what you want to do is focus on your opponent,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a former Republican National Committee chief of staff. “You’ve got to play the field’s conditions. They demand very tough tactics.”
Cole spelled out that approach in a recent strategy memo to House Republicans: “Define your opponent immediately and unrelentingly…. Do not let up — keep the tough ads running right up to election day. Don’t make the mistake of pulling your ads in favor of a positive rotation the last weekend.”
–LA Times
Republicans and Democrats began showing at least 30 new campaign advertisements in contested House and Senate districts across the country on Tuesday. Of those, three were positive.
For Republicans, it was the leading edge of a wave of negative advertisements against Democratic candidates, the product of more than a year of research into the personal and professional backgrounds of Democratic challengers.
“What do we really know about Angie Paccione?” an announcer asks about a Democratic challenger in Colorado. “Angie Paccione had 10 legal claims against her for bad debts and campaign violations. A court even ordered her wages garnished.”
–NY Times
One thing to keep in mind as the attacks start hitting is that in many seats, the only thing Republicans really need to do is keep Republicans from defecting. After all, Republicans are often simply protecting incumbents in districts where Republicans outnumber Democrats. And while Republicans may be dissatisfied with Bush and Iraq right now, millions of dollars will be spent on ads making the congressional campaigns more personal. “Let me tell you,” the ads will be saying to their Republican voters, “why you don’t want to take a chance on this Democrat.”
Look, for example, at Florida-22, where incumbent Republican Clay Shaw is taking on Ron Klein. A DCCC poll a few weeks ago showed Klein down only 4 (42 percent to 38 percent). But that, presumably, was before the Republicans cut loose with the sort of negative ads the articles above described. According to Majority Watch, Republicans outnumber Democrats in this district 45-32. In other words, in order to beat the incumbent, Klein is going to have to convince a lot of Republicans (or an overwhelming number of independents who have been voting Republican) to vote for a Democrat. Meanwhile, the Republicans will be doing to Klein as the New York Times notes they are already doing to Angie Paccione in Colorado-4.
Klein may still pull it off. As may Paccione. But because of redistricting, many fewer seats are in play this year than was the case when the Republicans stole the House in 1994. These examples demonstrate that we won’t take it back if we simply get out Democrats and persuade a majority of independents - Democrats have to win Republican votes, too.
That’s a tall order. Especially given the challenges we as a party have had in telling voters what we stand for.
