Sad State of American Democracy
American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate reports that only 15.4 percent of the eligible electorate voted in statewide primary elections this year, a record low for mid-term primaries. The director of the Center, Curtis Gans, warns us to be careful about making November predictions based on the pathetic showing so far:
Low primary turnout does not predict general election turnout: In the past 50 years there have been three mid-term general elections with substantial turnout increases – 1966, 1982 and 1994. In both 1982 and 1994, turnout in the statewide primaries for those years was lower than the previous mid-term primaries (1978 and 1990). Because of the polarization produced by the Bush Administration and its policies and the intensity of feelings on both sides, turnout is likely to increase substantially above the 39.7 percent of the electorate who voted in 2002 and probably above the 42.2 percent who voted in 1994. Two things could temper this prediction: 1. If a portion of the now fragmented Republican Party chooses to stay home and 2. If the campaign gets so ugly that the citizenry says a pox on both your houses. But usually in high stakes elections with important issues of policy and power to be decided, the citizenry holds its nose and votes in larger numbers.
