The One Democrat Moving Up in the Polls
University of Wisconsin poli sci professor Charles H. Franklin takes a look at the presidential primary polls that actually mean something:
It is time to turn to state level polling for president. Obviously this is where the nomination is won (and mostly lost). While I believe national polling is valuable, it is Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina that will set the stage for the nearly-national primary on February 5. So starting now Political Arithmetik and our partner site, Pollster.com, will be giving new and increasing coverage to state polling.
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The most interesting trend in Iowa, however, is the rise of Bill Richardson. He currently stands in single digits at 9.1%, but is the only Democrat with a significantly upward trajectory.
Like Romney, Richardson has debuted ads in Iowa and New Hampshire and it is possible to attribute his rise to ads that aren’t being answered yet by any of his competitors. But the last couple of weeks have seen news articles saying Richardson is the big disappointment of the debates, a possible breakout candidate who has completely failed to break out nationally. True enough. But in Iowa (and wait for it– New Hampshire, see below) Richardson is beginning to show the upward movement that previous success stories would look for. That said he is at half the support in the polls of any of the top three, so Richardson has a long way to go to become genuinely competitive in Iowa. But the stagnation of the top three campaigns in the second quarter, and Iowa’s positive response to Richardson’s ad campaign (and personal appearances) suggests that it may be too early to write this obituary.
New Hampshire for Democrats looks a lot like Iowa.
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Obama and Edwards have both seen small declines in support in the second quarter. Hardly large and certainly not panic inducing. But again not what two insurgents facing the “inevitable” frontrunner would like to see. If Clinton is not showing the gains in strength she would like, Obama and Edwards are suffering from a failure to improve their competitive standing.
And then there is Bill Richardson. At 9.1%, just where he was in Iowa. And with a very similar upward trajectory noticeably lacking for the other candidates.
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It is a very long way to go to January. Never, never, never will I suggest the current polls show how the race “must” end. But if I were in the Giuliani, McCain or Gingrich camps I’d be looking really hard for some debate points to reignite what look to be floundering campaigns. And I imagine they are smiling pretty much in Boston at Romney headquarters.
For the Democrats it is hard to say the top three are in anything like the same trouble, but I’d be laying awake nights wondering what I have to do to move any of these three campaigns off the dime. Richardson seems to have capitalized on a nice pair of “job interview” ads to introduce him to Iowa and New Hampshire. Now can he continue to improve on the impressive gains of the second quarter to get himself out of single digits and contend seriously for third place? Or is TV fame fleeting, and this gain won’t last?
Very interesting. I think I’ll stay tuned to the next episode.
