The American Workforce in 2050
To the extent that the immigration debate gets any coverage in the media these days, it seems to be about the way the proponents of human rights are shouting past the xenophobes and vice versa. Meanwhile, Europe and Japan both are giving serious consideration to what it will do for their economies as the number of residents older than 65 rises relative to the working age population.
The U.S. Census recently released projections for the U.S. population in 2050. The projections included what the population would be if the U.S. experiences a lot of immigration between now and then (”High Immigration”) and if the U.S. experiences no immigration. I took those numbers and calculated the number of working age (18-65) residents divided by the total population (including children and seniors). The number is intended to be a rough approximation of how many people each taxpayer’s contribution to the system needs to support.
Last year, there were 1.59 people in the U.S. for each working age adult. In 2050, if we allow many immigrants, that number will jump to 1.76. Even higher, however, is the number if we allow no net immigrants: 1.81. In the “No Immigration” scenario, the percentage of Americans 65 and older will double between now and 2050.
If we don’t pass sensible immigration reform soon, who will do the work in 2050? And how much more will they be paying in taxes?
Update [12/30/2009]: My good friend Eddie Aldrete makes the same point and more with great eloquence in Latino Magazine. Here’s a highlight:
The U.S. has a demand for 500,000 to 600,000 low-skilled workers each year, yet the federal government only issues 5,000 visas for that category. The arbitrary visa cap and the byzantine immigration process are the encouragement to enter illegally. California farmers are moving some of their operations to Mexico to overcome the shortages of farm workers. Our strict limits on high-skilled workers are driving U.S. companies to locate or relocate in Canada. During a recession, why are we exporting low-skilled jobs to Mexico and high-skilled jobs to Canada?
